Beat trading bots by thinking in years, with Claude

I hold (or am considering) [company name and ticker, or ETF]. Using the annual report and quarterly results in this project, plus web search for anything more recent, write a 5-year research thesis for it. Cite the document or link for every factual claim, and say clearly when something is your inference rather than a stated fact.

Structure it as: what the business actually sells and who pays for it, how it makes money and whether that is getting better or worse over the last 3 years, the 2 or 3 things that must be true for this business to be meaningfully bigger in 5 years, and what the current price already seems to assume.

Finish with one paragraph I could reread in a year that says, in plain language, why I own this. Do not tell me to buy or sell, and do not predict a share price.

Assume it is 5 years from now and the thesis we just wrote turned out to be wrong. Work backwards and give me the 5 most likely reasons it failed, ranked by how likely they are, using evidence from the filings and recent news rather than generic risks.

For each reason, give me one specific, measurable warning sign I could check each quarter (for example "gross margin falls below X% two quarters in a row" or "the largest customer drops below Y% of revenue"), and where in the company's reports I would find that number.

Then tell me which one of these risks the market seems to be ignoring right now, and which one is probably already priced in, and explain why in two sentences each.

New quarterly results for [company] are now in this project. Compare them against my saved thesis and the warning signs from my pre-mortem.

For each warning sign, tell me the current number, the previous number, and whether it is fine, worth watching, or triggered, with a citation to where you found it. Then tell me whether anything in these results changes one of the 2 or 3 things that must be true for the thesis, and separate real business changes from short-term noise like one-off costs or share price moves.

End with one of three verdicts: thesis intact, thesis weakened (say exactly what would need to happen next quarter to break it), or thesis broken. Do not recommend buying or selling.