Start here Claude

Build a Claude skill that analyzes prediction markets (educational build guide)

Hey, it's Cindy 🌱 You commented MARKETS, so here is the honest build guide: how to make a Claude skill that reads and analyzes prediction markets.

btw the waitlist for AI System Club is now open! If you're keen on using AI to automate your content, video editing, job search, business or build AI agents, feel free to sign up (only if you want to hehe). Ps. the waitlist gets first dibs:)

start here

First, the myth

The viral "1,500 dollars a day Claude trading bot" with a "68.4% win rate hidden in Anthropic's guide" is not real. It got community noted, and the trading screenshots were stapled onto an Anthropic skills guide that never mentions trading. So ignore the income numbers. What is real is much more useful: Claude can read prediction markets and analyze them for you.

the basics

What a prediction market actually is

Sites like Polymarket and Kalshi let people trade on real future events. A share pays one dollar if it happens and nothing if it doesn't, so the price is the crowd's probability. Thirty cents means the crowd thinks about thirty percent. When news breaks, the price moves, so it is a live, money-backed probability feed.

Why it is worth reading

Polymarket did over nine billion dollars in volume in 2024 with 314,500 active traders, and combined prediction-market volume jumped from under five billion dollars a month to around twenty-four billion a month in 2026. That is a lot of real signal you can point Claude at.

the build

How to build the skill in Claude Code

This works in Claude Code, where skills have real network access.

1 · Scaffold the skill folder

Create a skill. In Claude Code, make a folder with a SKILL.md file. In the description write: "Pull and analyze live prediction-market odds from Polymarket." That description is what makes Claude load the skill automatically.

2 · Point it at a free public API

Give it the data. Polymarket's Gamma API is public and needs no key for reading. Point the skill at https://gamma-api.polymarket.com to fetch active markets, prices, and volume.

3 · Your first real query

Pull and rank: "Pull the top 20 active markets by volume, show each market's implied probability, and flag any that moved more than 10 points in the last 24 hours."

4 · Where the edge-spotting happens

Add the news layer: "For the 5 biggest movers, search the news and tell me whether the price has caught up to the story or not." This is where the edge-spotting happens.

5 · The most interesting signal

Compare platforms: "Check whether Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on the same event, and show me the gap." Differences between platforms are the most interesting signal.

what to watch

The catch, read this

This is an analyst, not an oracle. Only about 1 in 5 traders actually make money. Cheap longshots win less often than their price implies (that is called favourite-longshot bias), and the odds are a useful estimate, not gospel. Real-money trading is also restricted in many US states. The reading-and-analyzing skill is the safe, smart part. The trading is where the risk lives, so treat anything it says as research, not advice.

the receipts

Check it yourself, the proof

The real Anthropic skills guide, no trading in it
Anthropic Agent Skills doc
Polymarket's public API docs
Claude reading 1.3 billion Polymarket trades, only 20.6% of traders were profitable

use it well

How to get the most out of it

Build it in Claude Code on a free, read-only setup first, so you are only ever reading public odds, never risking money. Ask it to explain why a market moved, not just what the price is. The real goal is getting sharper at reading probability, which pays off well beyond betting.

Build a Claude skill that analyzes prediction markets (educational build guide)

First, the myth

What a prediction market actually is

Why it is worth reading

How to build the skill in Claude Code

The catch, read this

Check it yourself, the proof

How to get the most out of it

AI System Club is launching soon